2012 Surface and Groundwater Modeling Lectures

Formulating, Applying and Constraining Hydrological Models: Modeling 101

Abstract: Physical, analog, analytical, numerical, statistical and artificial neural network modeling methods are used to describe and evaluate hydrological processes and systems. The term modeling or making a model typically suggests that a scaled simplified representation of a complex heterogeneous setting is being formulated. The modeling process starts with clearly defining a purpose and formulating a data based or theoretical conceptual model of the processes or setting being modeled. Models are used to represent generic conditions and processes, to interpret how multiple physical and hydrological processes interface to create systems, and to forecast how future conditions will impact a reference set of conditions. Reporting of modeling results requires uncertainty analyses that reflect the realization that parameterization relies on data sets that are incomplete and contain errors, and a number of alternative conceptual models may also appropriately represent the hydrologic setting. Using examples from the hydrological sciences and other fields the modeling process will be tracked from generating a purpose to evaluating uncertain model predictions.

William Woessner, U of Montana

Host: Hong Chen

Wed, Jan 11, 3:30-4:30 p.m.

Water Seminar

Hardin Hall Auditorium

Using Hydrologic Models to Estimate the Impact of Climate Change on River Flows, Water Supply Reliability and Ecosystem Responses

Abstract: The preponderance of evidence in the scientific community supports the premise that global climate is changing. The precise impacts of climate change on natural and man-made systems remain less certain. Estimation of climate change impacts on river flows, water supply reliability, and ecosystem responses requires the careful application of a variety of models including global or regional circulation models, decision scaling of this information, hydrologic models, and ecosystem response models. This presentation addresses all stages of this process, but focusses primarily on the application of hydrology models to this challenging problem. The presentation will begin with a brief description of forecasted impacts of climate change on the US. Next, techniques that appropriately translate these broad climate shifts to the watershed scale in a fashion useful for decision making are described. Our focus then turns to how best select appropriate hydrologic models to estimate the impacts of these changes on future hydrology. This discussion will include a review widely applied hydrologic models and a sampling of successful applications. The presentation concludes with examples of how outputs from hydrologic models have been used to estimate the range of impacts on water supply systems and eco-resources that are associated with forecasted climate change. The presentation will address current limits of these techniques and suggests how these limitations may be overcome by the next generation of future engineers and scientist.

Richard Palmer, U of Massachusetts Amherst

Host: Don Wilhite

Wed, Jan 18, 3:30-4:30 p.m.

Water Seminar

Hardin Hall Auditorium

The Future of HydroInformatics for Managing Water

Abstract: The advent of the internet and tools that leverage its connectivity have led to global information sharing and human community forming on a scale that was unimaginable even ten years ago. Central to this development are the world wide web protocols and the hypertext markup language that underlie the exchange of text, images and sound that we now take for granted. A similar trend is emerging in the exchange of water information – a new language called WaterML has been created to convey through the internet data observations of water variables such as discharge, groundwater levels, precipitation and water quality, and in 2012 it is likely this will become an international standard for water data exchange. The US Geological Survey has built a backbone of water web services using WaterML for the United States, and water "hubs" and "catalogs" are being developed that synthesize observational information from many organizations into a single water information system for a local region, a state or a nation. This lecture will describe the underpinnings of this web services system for water information sharing and describe a new initiative called World Water Online designed to bring together geospatial and temporal water information for the whole earth.

David Maidment, U of Texas-Austin

Host: Bruce Dvorak

Wed, Jan 25, 3:30-4:30 p.m.

Water Seminar

Hardin Hall Auditorium

Review of Water Quantity and Quality Applications of the SWAT Model in the USA

Abstract: SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) has been successfully applied and accepted worldwide as a means of assessing water quality and quantity. The SWAT model was developed jointly by the USDA-ARS and the Texas A&M University System over the past four decades. The model was first released in 1992, and since then it has gained significant momentum in development and adaptation around the world with more than a thousand peer-reviewed publications published to date. The SWAT model has been overwhelmingly embraced by most federal and state agencies around the U.S. for assessing water quality and quantity issues such as drought, flood, and point and nonpoint source pollution, ranging from the small watershed level to river basin or continental scale applications. The USEPA and the USDA-NRCS have been using the SWAT model for various national assessments including TMDL (Total Maximum Daily Load) and CEAP (Conservation Effectiveness Assessment Program) projects. In this presentation, I will briefly discuss the model and provide examples ranging from small watersheds to continental scale applications of water quantity and quality issues including climate change aspects. For more information about the model, please visit their website.

Raghavan Srinivasan, Texas A&M U

Host: Shannon Bartelt-Hunt

Fri, Mar. 2, 11-12 p.m.

Environmental and Water Resources Engineering

Scott Engineering Center 111

Integrating Hydrology and Economics: The Challenge of Practical Modelling

The value of a hydro-economic approach to water management is based both on the importance integrating economic and hydrologic objectives for policy making, and the increasing use of economic methods as a water management tool. However, the difference between the spatial and inter-temporal scales of hydrological and economic models has slowed their formal interaction. This paper describes, in detail, methods by which economic models of agricultural production and water use have been calibrated at a scale at which the economic variables can directly interact with hydrologic network models. We also suggest systematic checks of calibration precision at different stages, which allows for efficient debugging of models. Two different empirical applications illustrate such interactive models by analyzing regional water trading policies, and the cost of reducing nitrate contamination of ground water in California.

Richard Howitt, U of California-Davis

Hosts: Karina Schoengold, Larry Van Tassel

Wed, Mar. 28, 3:30-4:30 p.m.

Water Seminar

Hardin Hall Auditorium

Modeling and Forecasting a Groundwater-Dominated Ecosystem

Abstract: Hydrologic studies may be facilitated through application of modeling tools that help shape our understanding of important processes and properties. This presentation puts forth a set of conceptual and computer models that capture essential processes and properties for problems important to groundwater and its interaction with ecosystems. A set of four problems important to the central plains region will be discussed. The first problem addresses groundwater interactions with surficial hydrologic processes in terrestrial and riparian ecosystems. The second address groundwater uptake by phreatophytes along stream corridors. The third looks at the impact of a sloping aquifer base on groundwater flow patterns. Lastly, the integration of groundwater models with models of society is discussed. Throughout this presentation, recent findings of a team of researchers at Kansas State University will be highlighted.

David Steward, Kansas State U

Host: Wayne Woldt

Wed, Apr. 11, 3:30-4:30 p.m.

Water Seminar

Hardin Hall Auditorium

Hydroinformatics: Optimization and Uncertainties of Integrating Data, Models and Decisions

Abstract: Hydroinformatics is a discipline and a technology dealing with the use of advances in ICT, computer sciences and computational intelligence for solving problems of aquatic environment. It considers the whole chain data-models-decisions-people, uses systems approach and seeks for identifying optimal solutions in multi-stakeholder context. Mathematical computer-based modelling is the heart of Hydroinformatics approach. Due to the generality of the approach, application area of hydroinformatics is very wide: river basin and water resources management, groundwater management, flood risk management, reservoir optimization, coastal management, environmental systems, urban water systems, etc. The first Masters programme in Hydroinformatics in the world started in 1990 at IHE-Delft (currently UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education).

In this talk, an introduction to hydroinformatics will be given, together with some latest research results examples concerning more specific problems: using optimal multi-models in flow forecasting, using machine learning in building predictive models of uncertainty, using multi-objective optimization to improve water systems operation. An ever-present issue of making modelling results better understood and used by managers and stakeholders in an optimal way will be addressed as well.

Dimitri Solomatine, UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education

Host: Dean Eisenhauer?

Fri, Apr 13, 11-12 p.m.

Environmental and Water Resources Engineering

Scott Engineering Center 111

A Physically-Based Approach to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Canadian Water Resources

Abstract: It is now generally accepted within the scientific community that the climate is changing, and that future climate change may have significant impact on water resources in both quantity and quality. Alterations of base flow to rivers due to changing subsurface flow patterns, fluctuations in the depth of the groundwater table and the water levels of lakes, and altered groundwater recharge/discharge patterns are examples of possible consequences of future climate change. Quantification of such impacts as driven by plausible climate-change scenarios is essential for policy makers. To date, there are numerous studies concerning this issue in the literature, but, to our knowledge, many are limited to a relatively small domain, usually up to a watershed or basin scale, and/or they fail to simulate the surface and subsurface flow regimes in a physically-based, fully-integrated manner. In this study, our physically-based model, HydroGeoSphere (HGS), is employed to simulate 2D surface water flow on the land surface together with 3D variably-saturated subsurface flow covering the entire Canadian landscape. Various numerical solution and mesh resolution issues are explored in view of the large computational effort required the handle 3D continental-scale simulations, and to accommodate the highly-complex and wide-ranging terrain over the Canadian land mass. The impact of long-term future climate change upon Canadian water resources is explored after calibration against historical meteorological, hydrological and hydrogeological data. In this study, we employ down-scaled future climate predictions from NCAR's Community Climate System Model (CCSM), the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model and the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) to drive the 3D HGS computations.

Edward Sudicky, University of Waterloo

Host: Vitaly Zlotnik

Fri, Apr 20, 3:30 - 4:30 p.m.

Stout Lecture

Bessey Hall 117